歐亞煤炭市場報告2014-2EURACOAL-Market-Report-2014-2(2014)
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世界煤炭市場發(fā)展-世界煤炭生產(chǎn)和海運貿(mào)易發(fā)展,全球煤炭供應(yīng)過剩與需求增長不夠快的情況在2014年繼續(xù)存在。因此,2014年物價仍面臨壓力。僅2013年10月至2014年7月,動力煤價格就從89美元/噸降至72美元/噸,降幅約為20%。煉焦煤價格也是如此。煉焦煤和焦炭的價格在2014年也出現(xiàn)下跌,原因是需求普遍下滑,同時供應(yīng)也出現(xiàn)擴張。盡管截至2013年底,煉焦煤的價格仍在每噸135美元至140美元之間,但這一水平已在不斷下降。這種發(fā)展在2014年繼續(xù)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位;截至2014年年中,HCC質(zhì)量的現(xiàn)貨價格已跌至每噸116美元。在德國,目前最大的問題是風(fēng)能和其他可再生能源越來越多地進入電網(wǎng)。德國的風(fēng)電裝機容量為34吉瓦,光伏并網(wǎng)裝機容量為35吉瓦。在波蘭,2014年第一季度的硬煤產(chǎn)量達到17.9噸,而2013年同期為18.7噸。在英國,2013年的煤炭產(chǎn)量下降了約4.5噸,在過去的7-8年里,煤炭產(chǎn)量一直穩(wěn)定在16.5至18噸之間,原因是道夫磨坊煤礦(Daw Mill colliery)的關(guān)閉、蘇格蘭煤炭公司(Scottish coal)的破產(chǎn)以及馬爾茨比煤礦(Maltby)的關(guān)閉。2013年,西班牙的硬煤產(chǎn)量為7.8萬噸,占發(fā)電煤量的15%,遠低于目標。西班牙的經(jīng)濟形勢和政治問題使得煤礦開采非常困難。在捷克共和國,2013年的硬煤產(chǎn)量下降了四分之一,但在2014年前三個月又增加了26%。在羅馬尼亞,2013年的煤炭凈消費量與2012年相比下降了27%。在綜合礦山和火力發(fā)電廠中,奧坦尼亞能源綜合設(shè)施是最大的。在烏克蘭,2014年前5個月開采了34.4噸煤(25.1噸蒸汽煤和9.3噸焦煤),比2013年的產(chǎn)量高出1.2%。烏克蘭的出口增長了,尤其是對中國和印度的出口,但在2013年烏格萊格斯卡(Uglegorska)熱電廠3號和4號機組在一場大火后重新啟動后,國內(nèi)需求也出現(xiàn)了增長。在瑞典,2013年的能源政策沒有改變??梢越ㄔ煲粋€新的核電站來取代舊的機組。褐煤在德國,褐煤工業(yè)的重要發(fā)展發(fā)生在這個國家的東部,那里Vattenfall協(xié)商后續(xù)的新許可證的露天活動Nochten不久將開始,包括安置大約700公民,而且,在勃蘭登堡,安置在露天礦山Welzow也將從2014年開始,盡管綠色和平組織以及其他組織抗議活動。在捷克共和國,預(yù)計未來數(shù)年褐煤年產(chǎn)量將保持在40噸。在希臘,褐煤主要用于發(fā)電。由于氣候溫和,2013年的用電量小幅下降至50.7千瓦時,而2008年的峰值為56.9千瓦時。2013年,波蘭的褐煤產(chǎn)量為65.7噸,經(jīng)過多年的穩(wěn)定增長(2007年為61.6噸),在中西部地區(qū)仍有巨大的儲量。在保加利亞,國內(nèi)電力市場是建立在雙邊合同的基礎(chǔ)上,有一個平衡的市場。在匈牙利,煤炭仍然是一種重要的燃料:2013年褐煤產(chǎn)量為9.1噸,進口總量為1.6噸。在斯洛文尼亞,第二發(fā)電廠?o?tanj旁邊,Trbovlje電廠2014年9月15日被關(guān)閉。在斯洛伐克,預(yù)計意大利電力公司ENEL將出售其股票在國家發(fā)電廠捷克?EZ組。
WORLD COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS - WORLD COAL PRODUCTION AND SEABORNE TRADE Developments in which a worldwide surplus in the supply of coal runs into demand which is not growing fast enough continued in 2014. Prices remained under pressure in 2014 as a result. From October 2013 to July 2014 alone, prices for steam coal fell from US$89/tonne to US$72/tonne, about 20%. The same is true of coking coal prices. Both coking coal and coke prices declined also in 2014 because of the general slump in demand accompanied by a simultaneous expansion in supply. While prices between US$135 and US$140/tonne were still being paid for coking coal at the end of 2013, this level had continuously decreased. This development continues to hold sway in 2014; as of the middle of 2014, spot prices for HCC quality had fallen to US$116/tonne.HARD COAL In Germany, the biggest current issue is the increasing feed-in of wind and other renewable power into the grid. Germany has 34 GW of installed wind capacity and 35 GW of installed photovoltaic capacity connected to the grid. In Poland, hard coal production for the first quarter of 2014 reached 17.9 Mt against 18.7 Mt for the same period in 2013. In the United Kingdom, coal production decreased by around 4.5 Mt in 2013, after having been stable for 7-8 years at between 16.5 and 18 Mt, due to the closure of Daw Mill colliery, the liquidation of Scottish Coal and the closure of Maltby colliery.In Spain, hard coal production in 2013 was 7.8 Mt with a share of coal in power generation of 15% which is far below the target. The economic situation and political problems in Spain make coal mining very difficult. In the Czech Republic, hard coal production in 2013 dropped by one quarter, but increased again in the first three months of 2014 by 26%.In Romania, net coal consumption decreased in 2013 by a massive 27% compared with 2012. Of the integrated mines and coal-fired power plants, the Oltenia Energy Complex is the biggest. In Ukraine, 34.4 Mt of coal was mined during the first five months of 2014 (25.1 Mt steam coal and 9.3 Mt coking coal), 1.2% above 2013 production. Exports from Ukraine grew, especially to China and India, but domestic demand also grew after units 3 & 4 restarted at Uglegorska thermal power station following a major fire in 2013. In Sweden, energy policy was unchanged in 2013. A new nuclear power plant could be constructed, replacing old units. LIGNITEIn Germany, important developments in the lignite industry are taking place in the eastern part of the country, where Vattenfall negotiated new permits for the follow-on of its opencast activities at Nochten which will begin shortly, including the resettlement of some 1 700 citizens, and, in Brandenburg, resettlement near opencast mine Welzow will also start in 2014, despite protests by Greenpeace and others. In the Czech Republic, annual lignite output is expected to be maintained at a level of 40 Mt for the years to come.In Greece, lignite is mainly used for power generation. Due to mild weather, electricity consumption fell slightly in 2013 to 50.7 GWh compared with the peak in 2008 of 56.9 GWh.In 2013, Poland produced 65.7 Mt of lignite, showing a stable increase over a number of years (from 61.6 Mt in 2007) and still having huge reserves in the central and western parts of the country.In Bulgaria, the internal electric power market is built on the basis of bilateral contracts with a balancing market.In Hungary, coal remains an important fuel: lignite production in 2013 was 9.1 Mt and imports totalled 1.6 Mt.In Slovenia, the second power plant beside ?o?tanj, Trbovlje power plant was shut down on 15 September 2014.In Slovakia, it is expected that the Italian power company ENEL will sell its shares in national power plants to the Czech ?EZ Group.
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