《年度能源展望》第四次出版，反映了我們根據(jù)對可能的經(jīng)濟(jì)和人口增長以及政策和技術(shù)發(fā)展的看法，盡最大努力描述全球能源系統(tǒng)“最有可能”的軌跡?！墩雇泛退逆⒚贸霭嫖铩妒澜缒茉唇y(tǒng)計(jì)評論》一樣，是我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)團(tuán)隊(duì)深入分析的結(jié)果；這兩份文件都理所當(dāng)然地成為那些對能源感興趣的人的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)參考。當(dāng)然，未來是不確定的：構(gòu)成這一前景的數(shù)字不如長期趨勢、未來道路上可能出現(xiàn)的岔口以及它們給政府和企業(yè)決策者帶來的選擇重要。本期《了望》提出了三大問題：世界是否有足夠的能源來推動經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長？能源安全嗎？它是否可持續(xù)？關(guān)于第一個(gè)問題，我們的回答是響亮的“是”。我們預(yù)計(jì)，到2035年，全球能源消費(fèi)將增長41%，其中95%的增長來自快速增長的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。這一增長速度比我們在過去幾十年看到的要慢，主要是由于能源效率的提高。全球技術(shù)、投資和政策的趨勢使我們相信，生產(chǎn)將能夠跟上步伐。頁巖氣、致密油和可再生能源等新能源形式將在全球供應(yīng)增長中占據(jù)重要份額。在全球化和競爭的推動下，能源效率有望得到不可改變的提高。在安全問題上，我們的展望提供了一個(gè)混合的，盡管大體上是積極的觀點(diǎn)。在當(dāng)今的能源進(jìn)口國中，美國正走上實(shí)現(xiàn)能源自給自足的道路，而歐洲、中國和印度的進(jìn)口依存度將增加。亞洲將成為主要的能源進(jìn)口地區(qū)。俄羅斯仍將是主要的能源出口國，非洲將成為越來越重要的供應(yīng)國。盡管它仍將是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的能源參與者，但中東可能會出現(xiàn)相對穩(wěn)定的出口。在可持續(xù)性問題上，我們計(jì)劃全球二氧化碳排放量將增長29%，所有增長都來自新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。有一些積極的發(fā)展：隨著天然氣和可再生能源從煤炭和石油中獲得市場份額，排放量增長將放緩。預(yù)計(jì)歐洲和美國的排放量將下降。但我們可以做得更好。今年，我們將前景展望延長至2035年，這足以看到一些關(guān)鍵的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)：印度可能超過中國，成為最大的能源需求增長來源；可再生能源將不再是次要角色，超過核能；經(jīng)合組織成員國將開始“破解”在減少能源需求的同時(shí)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的密碼?！读送吩俅螐?qiáng)調(diào)了競爭和市場力量在釋放技術(shù)和創(chuàng)新以滿足世界能源需求方面的力量。這些因素使我們對世界能源的未來感到樂觀，并為我們應(yīng)對安全和可持續(xù)性等挑戰(zhàn)指明了前進(jìn)的方向。我希望你能發(fā)現(xiàn)英國石油公司的能源展望對全球能源討論是一個(gè)有益的補(bǔ)充。
Published for the 4th time, the annual Energy Outlook reflects our best effort to describe a “most likely” trajectory of the global energy system, based on our views of likely economic and population growth, as well as developments in policy and technology. The Outlook, like its sister publication, the Statistical Review of World Energy, is the result of intensive analysis by our Economics Team; both documents have deservedly become standard references for those with an interest in energy. Of course the future is uncertain: the numbers that make up this Outlookare less important than the long-term trends, the possible forks in the road ahead, and the choices they pose for decision makers in government and business. This edition of the Outlookraises three big questions: Will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth? Will that energy be secure? And will it be sustainable? On the first question, our answer is a resounding “Yes”. We project that global energy consumption will rise by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidlygrowing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Trends in global technology, investment and policy leave us confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply. Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalization and competition. On the question of security, our Outlookoffers a mixed, though broadly positive, view. Among today’s energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy selfsufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports. And on the question of sustainability, we project that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US. But we could do better. This year, we extend the outlook to 2035 –far enough to see some key turning points: India is likely to surpass China as the largest source of energy demand growth; renewable energy will no longer be a minor player, surpassing nuclear energy; and OECD countries will have started to “crack the code” of sustaining economic growth while reducing energy demand. Once again, the Outlookhighlights the power of competition and market forces in unlocking technology and innovation to meet the world’s energy needs. These factors make us optimistic for the world’s energy future, and they suggest a way forward in mastering challenges such as security and sustainability. I hope you find the BP Energy Outlooka useful addition to the global energy discussion.
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