本文研究了大型儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)在未來(lái)電力系統(tǒng)中的潛在作用。模擬的起點(diǎn)和基礎(chǔ)是2008年能源技術(shù)展望（ETP）供電藍(lán)色情景（IEA，2008）。根據(jù)這一設(shè)想，增加使用可再生能源和核技術(shù)可以在電力部門大幅度減少二氧化碳排放方面發(fā)揮重要作用。通過(guò)增加這些技術(shù)的使用，化石燃料發(fā)電廠的使用以及由此產(chǎn)生的二氧化碳排放將減少。在藍(lán)圖情景中，到2050年，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能提供了全球發(fā)電量的12%和11%。風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能等可變產(chǎn)出可再生技術(shù)不可調(diào)度。由于這些技術(shù)占有很大份額，需要采取步驟確保持續(xù)可靠的電力供應(yīng)。盡管相關(guān)問(wèn)題包括電壓和頻率變化，但本報(bào)告主要關(guān)注頻率穩(wěn)定性。要實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)，就必須保持供需平衡，而且在當(dāng)今大多數(shù)電力系統(tǒng)中，煤炭和天然氣等中負(fù)荷技術(shù)以及在某些情況下水力發(fā)電在這方面發(fā)揮著主要作用。本文的主要重點(diǎn)是調(diào)查2010年至2050年間的存儲(chǔ)增長(zhǎng)和全球總存儲(chǔ)容量需求，以幫助電力系統(tǒng)與大量可變可再生能源的平衡。可變可再生能源與天氣相關(guān)的電力輸出變化相關(guān)，包括秒到幾分鐘的短期變化，與數(shù)小時(shí)的長(zhǎng)期變化疊加。頻率變化取決于短期變化，因此本報(bào)告?zhèn)戎赜诙唐谧兓?。盡管單個(gè)風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠或太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電廠的發(fā)電量可能有很大的變化，但風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠和光伏發(fā)電廠的廣泛地理分布減少了整個(gè)系統(tǒng)所看到的許多發(fā)電廠的凈變化?？稍偕茉磧舢a(chǎn)出變化是該分析中的一個(gè)重要參數(shù)。迄今為止，這種平滑效果的影響因地區(qū)而異。如果單個(gè)風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠和光伏發(fā)電廠的輸出不相關(guān)，則變化程度會(huì)隨著總發(fā)電廠數(shù)量的平方根的倒數(shù)而減小。另一方面，在風(fēng)力發(fā)電和光伏發(fā)電數(shù)量較多的相對(duì)較小的地區(qū)，發(fā)電廠之間可能表現(xiàn)出較強(qiáng)的相關(guān)性。在這種情況下，將保持顯著的凈變化。
This paper focuses on the potential role that large-scale energy storage systems can play in future power systems. The starting point and basis for simulations is the Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (ETP) BLUE scenario for power supply (IEA, 2008). According to the scenario, increased use of renewable energy and nuclear technologies can play an important role in reducing CO 2 emissions dramatically in the power sector. Through the increased use of these technologies, the use of fossil fuel powered plants, and consequent CO 2 emissions, will be reduced. Wind power and solar power provides 12% and 11% of global electricity generation by 2050 in the BLUE Map scenario. Variable output renewable technologies such as wind and solar are not dispatchable. With large shares of these technologies, steps would need to be taken to ensure the continued reliable supply of electricity. While related issues include voltage and frequency variations, inter alia, this report focuses on frequency stability. Constant balance of demand and supply is essential to achieve this, and, in the majority of today’s power systems, mid load technologies such as coal and gas and in some cases hydro, play the chief role in this regard. The main focus of this paper is to investigate the storage growth and total global storage capacity needed between 2010 and 2050, to assist in the balancing of power systems with large shares of variable renewables. Variable renewable energies are associated with weather-related power output variations, which consist of short term variations on a scale of seconds to several minutes, superimposed on long term variation on the scale of several hours. Frequency change depends on the short- term variation, therefore this report focuses on short–term variations. Although the output of individual wind or solar plants can vary considerably, wide geographical dispersal of wind power and PV plants reduces the net variation of many plants as seen by the system as a whole. The net output variation of renewables is an important parameter in this analysis. To date, the impact of this smoothing effect varies from region to region. If the outputs of individual wind and PV plants are uncorrelated, the extent of variation decreases with the inverse square root of the overall number of plants. On the other hand, over relatively small areas with large numbers of wind and PV plants, plants may show strong correlation with each other. In such situations a significant net variation will remain.
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