天然氣的黃金時(shí)代預(yù)計(jì)將在20世紀(jì)10年代初到來，天然氣的供應(yīng)和需求都將穩(wěn)步增長，能源價(jià)格將趨于穩(wěn)定，并成為緩解氣候變化的工具，但尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)。本報(bào)告探討了許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體在提高天然氣利用率方面面臨的挑戰(zhàn)，以及在亞太地區(qū)和其他地區(qū)推廣天然氣利用的最佳方法，重點(diǎn)研究了六個(gè)案例：智利、中國、印度尼西亞、日本、聯(lián)合王國和越南?；谶@項(xiàng)研究，六個(gè)主要原因被確定為阻礙天然氣利用的因素。第一個(gè)原因是，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長沒有最初預(yù)期的那么快，特別是歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)和中國等新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，導(dǎo)致了一次能源需求的平穩(wěn)增長。其次，與煤炭相比，天然氣無法確保電力部門的相對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)效率。亞太地區(qū)許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體煤炭資源豐富，特別是新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體，隨著國內(nèi)能源需求預(yù)計(jì)將迅速增長，煤炭因具有成本競爭力而成為首選燃料。第三，政府大力支持可再生能源（許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體都有政策將可再生能源推廣為國內(nèi)零排放能源）。這種保護(hù)是成功的，天然氣未能如預(yù)期那樣擴(kuò)大其在電力部門的市場份額，因?yàn)榭稍偕茉吹某杀疽恢痹谙陆?。第四個(gè)原因與天然氣交易相關(guān)的商業(yè)慣例有關(guān)。由于天然氣的供應(yīng)需要昂貴的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，因此大部分天然氣都是通過長期合同進(jìn)行交易的。由于亞洲液化天然氣價(jià)格與國際原油價(jià)格掛鉤，因此在2014年之前，液化天然氣價(jià)格一直隨油價(jià)上漲，而液化天然氣的需求也未能增加，因?yàn)榕c煤炭和其他燃料相比，液化天然氣缺乏競爭力。第五，缺乏基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。只有在消費(fèi)者端建立基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施之后，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)天然氣需求。盡管亞太地區(qū)潛在的需求規(guī)模極其巨大，但公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)缺乏進(jìn)展是需求低迷的原因之一。六是國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)下降。在印度尼西亞，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)和地質(zhì)原因，天然氣產(chǎn)量下降，而在越南，天然氣需求與國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)密切匹配。由于天然氣運(yùn)輸成本高，國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量下降也可能導(dǎo)致需求下降。根據(jù)本報(bào)告案例研究的結(jié)果，在促進(jìn)使用天然氣方面有四個(gè)政策問題。首先是設(shè)定一個(gè)理想的能源組合。各種因素決定著一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的能源結(jié)構(gòu)，如各種能源的價(jià)格競爭力、供應(yīng)和安全的穩(wěn)定性以及環(huán)境兼容性?；谶@些不同的因素，政府必須清楚地表明理想的能源供應(yīng)平衡。通過明確表明整體能源結(jié)構(gòu)的地位和特點(diǎn)，例如天然氣在一個(gè)部門中的作用，供應(yīng)天然氣的企業(yè)將發(fā)現(xiàn)更容易投資于天然氣業(yè)務(wù)并獲得資金。二是基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施維護(hù)。鑒于天然氣的使用量不斷增長，基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施也在增長，但即使在歐洲，也有許多情況下，政府為發(fā)展天然氣貢獻(xiàn)了一定的資金。雖然可以通過明確天然氣在上述能源結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)置中的預(yù)期作用，使此類基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資更加容易，但仍有必要提供一定程度的政府財(cái)政支持。特別是在促進(jìn)交通部門擴(kuò)大使用方面，支持
The golden age of natural gas was expected to arrive early in the 2010s—with both the supply and demand of natural gas steadily growing, energy prices stabilising and as a tool in mitigating climate change—but has yet to materialise. This report examines the challenges faced in increasing gas utilisation for numerous economies and the best approach to promote the use of gas in the AsiaPacific and other regions by focusing on six case studies involving: Chile; China; Indonesia; Japan; United Kingdom and Viet Nam. Based on this study, six main reasons have been identified as factors that hampered gas utilisation. The first reason is that the global economy did not grow as much as initially anticipated, particularly the European economy and emerging economies such as China, which resulted in flat growth in primary energy demand. Second, natural gas has not been able to secure relative economic efficiencies in the power sector compared with coal. Many economies in the Asia-Pacific region have abundant coal resources, especially emerging economies, and with domestic energy demand expected to rapidly increase, coal has been the fuel of choice due to cost competitiveness. Third, there is strong government support for renewable energy (many economies have policies promoting renewable energy as domestic zero-emission energy). Such protection has been successful and natural gas has not been able to expand its market share as expected in the power sector because the cost of renewable energy has been falling. The fourth reason has to do with business practices related to trading natural gas. Since natural gas requires expensive infrastructure for its supply, much of it is traded on long-term contracts. Since the price of LNG in Asia is linked to international crude oil prices, it rose with the price of oil until 2014 and the demand for LNG failed to increase because of its lack of competitiveness compared with coal and other fuels. Fifth, there is a lack of infrastructure. Natural gas demand is realised only after the infrastructure is established on the consumer end. Although the potential scale of demand in the Asia-Pacific region is extremely large, the lack of progress on building public infrastructure is one reason demand is sluggish. Sixth is the decline of domestic production. In Indonesia, natural gas production has declined for economic and geological reasons, while in Viet Nam, gas demand is closely matched with domestic production. Since gas is expensive to transport, a decrease in domestic production can also lead to a decline in demand. Based on the findings from the case studies in this report, there are four policy issues in promoting the use of natural gas. First is setting a desirable energy mix. Various factors determine an economy’s energy mix, such as the price competitiveness of various energy sources, the stability of supply and its safety, and environmental compatibility. Based on these various factors, it is important for a government to clearly indicate the desirable energy supply balance. By explicitly indicating the position and character of the overall energy mix, such as the role natural gas is expected to play in a sector, businesses that supply gas will find it easier to invest in the gas business and acquire funding. Second is the maintenance of infrastructure. It is a given that as the use of gas grows so does infrastructure, but even in Europe there are many cases where the government has contributed a certain amount of money to develop it. While it is possible to make it easier for such infrastructure investment to be made by clarifying the expected role of natural gas in the above-mentioned energy mix setting, it is still necessary to provide some degree of government financial support. Especially in promoting expanded use in the transportation sector, it is increasingly important to support
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