本研究補(bǔ)充了什么？本報(bào)告首次全面評(píng)估了印度主要空氣污染源造成的當(dāng)前和預(yù)測(cè)疾病負(fù)擔(dān)。在2015，來(lái)自幾個(gè)主要來(lái)源的顆粒物（PM）空氣污染造成約110萬(wàn)人死亡，占印度死亡總數(shù)的10.6%。燃燒源是主要貢獻(xiàn)者之一：在印度，住宅生物質(zhì)燃燒是造成疾病負(fù)擔(dān)的最大個(gè)人貢獻(xiàn)者。住宅生物質(zhì)燃燒造成267700人死亡，占PM2.5死亡人數(shù)的近25%，是2015年與死亡率相關(guān)的最重要的單一人為來(lái)源。這些負(fù)荷估計(jì)數(shù)不包括因室內(nèi)暴露于生物質(zhì)燃燒而產(chǎn)生的相當(dāng)大的額外負(fù)荷。煤炭燃燒和露天燃燒也大大增加了疾病負(fù)擔(dān)。在2015年，煤炭燃燒造成169300人死亡（15.5%）。農(nóng)業(yè)廢棄物的露天焚燒造成了66200人（6.1%）的PM2.5死亡。運(yùn)輸、分布式柴油和磚塊生產(chǎn)也是造成PM2.5所致疾病負(fù)擔(dān)的重要因素。2015年，交通運(yùn)輸造成23100人死亡，分布式柴油造成20400人死亡，磚塊生產(chǎn)造成24100人死亡。?如果不采取行動(dòng)，到2050年，人口對(duì)PM2.5的接觸可能增加40%以上。評(píng)估了三種不同的能源效率和空氣污染控制途徑（情景）。在很少采取額外行動(dòng)的參考情景（REF）中，暴露量從2015年的74 g/m3增加到2050年的106 g/m3。在雄心勃勃的S2情景下，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口水平保持在接近2015年的水平。只有在雄心勃勃的S3情景中設(shè)想的最積極的減少情況下，預(yù)計(jì)暴露量才會(huì)以主要方式減少——從2015年到2050年減少近35%，達(dá)到約48 g/m3。?如果不采取行動(dòng)，到2050年，來(lái)自所有來(lái)源的疾病的未來(lái)負(fù)擔(dān)將大幅度增加。隨著人口的老齡化和增長(zhǎng)，使更多的人容易受到空氣污染的影響，盡管預(yù)計(jì)在S2和S3情景中暴露量會(huì)減少，但疾病負(fù)擔(dān)預(yù)計(jì)在未來(lái)會(huì)增加。與2015年近110萬(wàn)人死亡相比，環(huán)境PM2.5造成的死亡預(yù)計(jì)將上升至360萬(wàn)人，無(wú)需采取行動(dòng)。?積極行動(dòng)可避免近120萬(wàn)人死亡；所有主要部門都需要減少空氣污染，以減輕疾病負(fù)擔(dān)。印度政府已經(jīng)開始采取行動(dòng)改善空氣質(zhì)量。該分析表明，與REF情景相比，S3情景下的積極行動(dòng)在2050年可以避免近120萬(wàn)人死亡。這對(duì)于減少住宅生物質(zhì)燃燒、燃煤和粉塵暴露的措施尤其適用

What This Study Adds ? This report provides the first comprehensive assessment of the current and predicted burdens of disease attributable to major sources of air pollution in India. ? In 2015, particulate matter (PM) air pollution from several major sources was responsible for approximately 1.1 million deaths, or 10.6% of the total number of deaths in India. Combustion sources are among the leading contributors: Residential biomass burning is the largest individual contributor to the burden of disease in India. Residential biomass burning was responsible for 267,700 deaths, or nearly 25% of the deaths attributable to PM2.5, making it the most important single anthropogenic source related to mortality in 2015. These burden estimates do not include the considerable additional burden from indoor exposure to biomass burning. Coal combustion and open burning also contribute substantially to disease burden. Coal combustion, roughly evenly split between industrial sources and thermal power plants, was responsible for 169,300 deaths (15.5%) in 2015. The open burning of agricultural residue was responsible for 66,200 (6.1%) PM2.5-attributable deaths. Transport, distributed diesel, and brick production are also important contributors to PM2.5-attributable disease burden. In 2015, transportation contributed 23,100 deaths, distributed diesel contributed 20,400 deaths, and brick production contributed 24,100 deaths. ? If no action is taken, population exposures to PM2.5 are likely to increase by more than 40% by 2050. Three different energy efficiency and air pollution control pathways (scenarios) were evaluated. In the reference scenario (REF), in which little additional action is taken, exposures increase from 74 g/m3 in 2015 to 106 g/m3 in 2050. Exposure levels are kept close to 2015 levels under an ambitious S2 scenario. Only under the most active reductions envisioned in the aspirational S3 scenario are exposures projected to be reduced in a major way — by nearly 35% from 2015 to 2050, reaching about 48 g/m3. ? If no action is taken, the future burden of disease from all sources will grow substantially by 2050. The burden of disease is expected to grow in the future, as the population ages and grows and leaves more people susceptible to air pollution, despite the projected exposure decreases in the S2 and S3 scenarios. Compared with nearly 1.1 million deaths in 2015, deaths attributable to ambient PM2.5 are projected to rise to 3.6 million with no action. ? Aggressive action could avoid nearly 1.2 million deaths; all major sectors will need to achieve reductions in air pollution to reduce disease burden. The Indian government has begun taking actions to improve air quality. This analysis demonstrates that aggressive actions under the S3 scenario could avoid nearly 1.2 million deaths in 2050 compared with the REF scenario. That will be especially true for actions to reduce exposure from residential biomass combustion, coal burning, and dusts