韓國(guó)總體需求展望Korea Eneray Demand Outlook
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- 更新時(shí)間:2021-09-09
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(一次能源)2014年一次能源需求預(yù)計(jì)比上年增長(zhǎng)2.6%,達(dá)到2.876億桶油當(dāng)量。與2013年一樣,一次能源需求增長(zhǎng)率可能低于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率(3.7%)。2009年至2012年,能源消費(fèi)增速超過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速。
(Primary energy) Primary energy demand for 2014 is forecast to rise 2.6% from the previous year to 287.6 million toe.
As was the case in 2013, the rate of increase in primary energy demand will likely be lower than the economics growth
rate (3.7%). The rate of increase in energy consumption exceeded the economic growth rate from 2009 through 2012. A
rise in electricity demand (2. 7%),triggered by an increase in electricity demand for industrial use(4.8%) as an outcome of
economic recovery, is forecast to lead primary demand.
(Key energy indicators) Energy efficiency will likely improve and per-capita energy consumption is expected to rise.
Energy intensity (toe/million won),which is an index that indicates national energy efficiency, is expected to improve
somewhat to 0.244 in 2014. Per-capita energy consumption for 2014 is forecast at 5.70 toe.It is forecast to remain at a
higher level than in major OECD countries. Per-capita energy consumption(toe): ('11)5.56→('12)557→('13)558→('14)5.70.
Comparison among major countries in per-capita consumption (2011): (OECD average)4.29,(Japan)3.61,(US)7.03.
(By energy source) Electricity(2.7%) and LNG (2.0%o) are expected to lead the rise in demand. Oil (0.6% increase): It is
expected to rise 0.6% year-on-year, attributable to increased demand in the transport sector and industrial sector. Rate
of increase in naphtha demand (%): ('12)8.3-('13)0.5-('14)2.4. Coal(1.0% increase): There will likely be a rise of 1.0% as a
result of an increase in coal demand for industrial use that will more than offset a reduction in coal demand for power
generation following the resumption of operation of Singori Nuclear Power Plant Units I and 2 and Sinwolseong Nuclear
Power Plant Unit I LNG (2.0% increase): Natural gas demand is forecast to rise much more slowly because the town gas
penetration rate is reaching a state of saturation. Rate of increase in natural gas consumption(%):
('12)8.1→('13)4.7→('14)2.0. Nuclear power(14.2% increase): Operation of some nuclear power plants was stopped
last year due to cable issues. Nuclear power generation is forecast to rise substantially with the resumption of operation
of these nuclear power plants. Electricity (2.7% increase): Demand for industrial use is forecast to go up 4.8% owing to
a rise in industrial production. It is forecast to lead an increase in overall electricity demand.
(By consumption sector) Final energy demand is expected to rise 2.4% to 215.6 million
toe as a result of the economic recovery.
Industry(3.5% increase): Town gas(6.0%), electricity (4.8%0), naphtha(2.4%), etc will
likely lead an increase in energy demand in the industrial sector.
Transport(1.6% increase): This increase is due to economic recovery, an Increase in
lemand for domestic and overseas traveling, and a rise in the number of registered
vehicles, even in the face of the persistently high oil prices.
Residential/commercial/public(0.4% increase): Demand will likely go down due to the
warm weather in the first half of the year. Demand for oil will continually be replaced by
demand for other energy sources
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