巴西風(fēng)力發(fā)電政策框架研究——摘要
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中國風(fēng)電行業(yè)2013年裝機(jī)16089兆瓦,比2012年增加3130兆瓦,年市場增長率為24%;這是2010年以來首次出現(xiàn)年市場增長(見圖1-1)。截至2013年底,中國累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量為91413MW,年市場增長率為21%。2013年,西藏第一個(gè)超高海拔試驗(yàn)風(fēng)電場在西藏自治區(qū)那曲投入運(yùn)行。目前中國各?。▍^(qū))都有風(fēng)力發(fā)電廠。2013年累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量最大的前4個(gè)地區(qū)分別是內(nèi)蒙古(20270MW)、河北(8500MW)、甘肅(7100MW)和山東(約7000 MW)。由于新輸電線的建設(shè),2013年新增裝機(jī)最多的省份是新疆,為3150兆瓦。2013年,國家能源局出臺(tái)多項(xiàng)政策措施,發(fā)展風(fēng)電行業(yè)監(jiān)測和審查制度,解決風(fēng)電削減問題。為理順風(fēng)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,中國水電水利規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)總院發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2013年全國新增并網(wǎng)容量14.49GW,累計(jì)并網(wǎng)容量77.16GW。這些數(shù)字與安裝數(shù)字不同,因?yàn)榘惭b后的并網(wǎng)和發(fā)電測試周期不同。與2009年和2010年相比,正式并網(wǎng)容量與裝機(jī)容量的差距逐步縮小。(見圖1-2)。2013年,風(fēng)電發(fā)電量為134.9TWh,成為中國僅次于火電和水電的第三大發(fā)電源,占中國電力的2.5%,低于歐盟的8%,但較2012年的2.0%增長了25%。2013年并網(wǎng)發(fā)電量最大的地區(qū)是內(nèi)蒙古,其次是河北、甘肅和遼寧,均超過10TWh。其中,內(nèi)蒙古西部電網(wǎng)發(fā)電量21.6TWh。是全國風(fēng)電上網(wǎng)能量利用率最高的地區(qū)。內(nèi)蒙古東部電網(wǎng)風(fēng)電生產(chǎn)上網(wǎng)電量達(dá)到14TWh,河北14.1TWh,甘肅11.9TWh,遼寧10TWh。由于限購,大型風(fēng)電基地建設(shè)放緩,而風(fēng)速資源較低、靠近負(fù)荷中心的地區(qū)成為發(fā)展熱點(diǎn)。許多原始設(shè)備制造商(oem)已經(jīng)開發(fā)了“低速”和“高海拔”風(fēng)力渦輪機(jī),為風(fēng)速低于6米/秒的地區(qū)帶來了更好的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?jié)摿?。大多?shù)低風(fēng)速地區(qū)位于中國中南部和西南部;但是新的風(fēng)電場也建在山區(qū)地區(qū)。自2010年以來,中國的年裝機(jī)容量占新發(fā)電容量的15%-16%。2013年,新的風(fēng)力發(fā)電容量占新建筑總量的15%,但太陽能發(fā)電量飆升至12%,水力發(fā)電量飆升至32%,而火電廠下降至29%。2013年,中國的大多數(shù)新電力設(shè)施首次實(shí)現(xiàn)了可再生能源。如圖1-6所示,截至2013年底,風(fēng)電累計(jì)裝機(jī)容量占全國裝機(jī)容量的6%,高于2012年的5%;排在火電(70%)和水電(22%)之后的第三位,年市場容量為15GW,到2015年,中國將超過既定的100GW計(jì)劃,到2020年輕松實(shí)現(xiàn)200GW的目標(biāo)。鑒于可利用的風(fēng)電資源、對(duì)煤炭的依賴、嚴(yán)峻的空氣污染問題和減排的需要,中國需要加大能源結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型力度,重新審視和提高風(fēng)電和可再生能源發(fā)展目標(biāo)。目前,風(fēng)力發(fā)電比其他最具發(fā)展?jié)摿Φ目稍偕茉聪鄬?duì)便宜,技術(shù)上也更成熟。中國擁有豐富的風(fēng)電資源和建設(shè)風(fēng)電設(shè)備滿足市場需求的能力。為了保持世界上最大的風(fēng)力發(fā)電市場,中國需要改善風(fēng)力發(fā)電的電網(wǎng)整合,加快大型海上和陸上風(fēng)力發(fā)電站的建設(shè),最大限度地發(fā)揮風(fēng)力發(fā)電在清潔能源供應(yīng)、煙霧控制和減排方面的作用。
The Chinese wind industry installed16,089 MW in 2013, an increase of 3,130 MW over 2012, for annual market growth of 24%; the first time the annual market has grown since 2010 (see Figure 1-1). At the end of 2013, the cumulative installed capacity in China was 91,413MW, an annual market growth rate of 21%1 . In 2013 an ultra high altitude experimental wind farm went into operation in Naqu, in theTibet Autonomous Region, the first wind farm in Tibet. There are now wind power plants in all Chinese provinces/regions. The top 4 regions with the largest cumulative installed capacity in 2013 were Inner Mongolia (20270MW), Hebei (8500MW), Gansu (7100MW) and Shandong (approx. 7000MW). Because of the construction of new transmission lines, the top province for new installations in 2013 was Xinjiang, with 3150MW. In 2013, the National Energy Administration(NEA) issued a number of policies and measures to develop a monitoring and review system for the wind power industry and to solve the issue of wind curtailment. It also introduced an annual wind power development plan to rationalize the development of the wind power industry.According to the data from the China Hydropower and Water Resources Planning and Design General Institute, in 2013 the newly grid-connected capacity nationwide was 14.49GW and the cumulative grid-connected capacity was 77.16GW. The figures differs from the installation figures due to the testing period of grid connection and power generation after the installation. Compared with 2009 and2 010, the gap between the official grid-connected capacity and installed capacity has decreased gradually. (see Figure 1-2). In 2013, wind power generated 134.9TWh of electricity,making wind the third largest power generation source in China after thermal power and hydropower, providing 2.5% of China’s electricity This is less than the EU’s 8%, but an increase of 25% from 2.0% in 2012.The region with the largest on-grid energy production in 2013 was Inner Mongolia, followed by Hebei, Gansu and Liaoning, all exceeding 10TWh. Among them, the Western Inner Mongolia Power Grid produced 21.6TWh of electricity. It was the top region with the highest wind power on-grid energypenetration ratio nationwide. The on-grid electricity produced by the wind power of production of the Eastern Inner Mongolia Power Grid reached 14TWh, Hebei 14.1TWh, Gansu 11.9TWh and Liaoning 10TWh. Because of the curtailment, the construction of large wind power bases has slowed down, whereas areas with lower wind speed resources, closer to load centers, have become development hot spots. Many Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) have developed "low speed" and "high-altitude" wind power turbines, bringing better economic development potential to regions with wind speeds under 6m/s. Most low windspeed sites are located in the south central and southwestern parts of China; but new wind farms were also built in the mountainous areas. Since 2010, China's annual installations have been 15-16% of new generation capacity. The new wind power capacity in 2013 was 15% of total new-build, but solar surged to 12% and Hydro to 32%, while thermal plants dropped to 29%. For the first time in 2013 the majority of new power installations in China were renewable. As seen in Figure 1-6, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power accounted for 6% of the national installed electric capacity by the end of 2013, up from 5%in 2012; in third place behind thermal power (70%) and hydropower (22%).With a market of of 15GW per year, China will exceed the established plan of 100GW by 2015 and easily meet the target of 200GW by 2020. Given the available wind power resources, reliance on coal, the grim air pollution problem and the need to reduce emissions, China needs to step up its efforts in transforming its energy structure, reviewing and increasing the targets for wind power and renewable energy development. Wind power is at the moment relatively cheaper and technically more mature than other renewables with the most development potential. China has rich wind power resources and the capabilities to build wind power equipment to meet market needs. In order to remain the world's largest wind power market, China needs to improve wind power’s grid integration, speed up the construction of large offshore and onshore wind power sites, and maximize the role of wind power in terms of clean energy supply, smog control and emissions reduction.
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